Locking In

It's been a while – over five months since my last newsletter. I have been busy, but not so much with work product that I have wanted to share here.

After writing about my idea for 'Crede', I was faced with a daunting prospect: I had outlined a concrete project that I could dedicate my time to and eventually turn into a real, money-making product. Back in July of last year when I started this newsletter, I still had some doubt as to whether I could really find something that I would want setup and start myself.

Seeing myself as an entrepreneur is at once both natural and exciting, but also intimidating. Setting out to proactively identify and solve problems for prospective customers comes easily, but having no clear line-of-sight between me and my first paycheck was – and is – a bit sickening.

The more I thought about Crede though (and with some further refinement of the idea), the more convinced I was that I had something to start entrepreneur-ing. With that conviction, and a few conversations with family later, I decided I would really commit to becoming an entrepreneur. That decision had one very important immediate consequence though: I needed to finish my PhD first.

So that's what I have been doing, well, in addition to spending some time relaxing back in Australia. I have set Brunn to one side for now, and focussed back 100% on my PhD. What do I have to show for my last five months of work? One of my articles – "Universal Basic Income: Consumption, Human Capital, and Labor Supply" – has (finally) been sent off to a journal, you can see the pre-publication version here. For my 'Africa' paper I have a final revision of the results to do, and for the 'Dawkins Revolution' paper I have finished data collection and a pre-results draft. This week I've begun work on the dissertation introduction. In short, the slow and relentless progress continues... I'll get back to you when the next article is dissertation-ready!

On further refinement

As I said, I have had some time to let the Crede idea ferment and mature. I came to realise that an exclusively "accounting software" play doesn't quite scratch my itch. The world needs a full range of front-to-back, vertically-integrated sustainable commodity supply chain solutions for a just energy transition (and more). Let me take you through what I mean, from the start to the end of the lifecycle.

1. Feedstocks (the very start)

Whether we're looking at sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or green steel, the production of the necessary feedstocks needs serious scaling up. Unlike fossil hydrocarbons, which come out of the ground already energy rich, something like SAF needs organic matter feedstock like seaweed or C4 grass which need to be either specially collected or grown for the purpose of fuel creation. Careful consideration needs to be given to the collection processes, farming practices, and land use involved in the production of these feedstocks to ensure the resulting fuels are indeed sustainable.

2. Production infrastructure

Great, we've now got our grass or hydrogen gas etc, now we need to convert it into something we can actually use! The integration of hydrogen/bio-crude and bio-refineries with existing steel mills/refineries etc, and the provision of renewable electrical power to the production processes is a careful balance of payoffs. Generally, areas that are renewable rich are population scarce, meaning that goods need to be transported longer distances before being processed or consumed. Transporting liquid hydrogen is still in the pilot phase. Liquifying organic matter into bio-oil increases the energy density of the cargo, but the bio-oil is far more reactive and difficult to transport than the feedstock – is it better to treat feedstocks at the site of collection or production? The most efficient business processes addressing these payoffs are still in the development phase.

3. Payment and delivery

Business-model and financial innovation is required to make sure the 'green premium' attached to these sustainable products is being sold to the highest bidder, even if the buyers don't have direct access to the goods themselves. This is where the book-and-claim systems and integrated supply chains come in that I discussed in the last newsletter.

4. Consumption

Sustainable fuels are definitionally separate from fossil fuel resources. In recent weeks we have been reminded how dangerous over-reliance on international energy supplies can be. Strategically leveraging the defence/geopolitical connection between energy security and sustainable infrastructure can help unlock additional funding for these expensive, very-long-horizon projects. This additional funding stream necessitates, though, that these energy-security considerations be integrated at the design stage to make sure that sustainable fuel production can indeed continue, even if international relationships deteriorate.

So Brunn is going on the back burner for a little longer, but I'm looking forward to further significant PhD progress in the coming weeks.